The inclusion of land cover change in future climate projections

Global circulation models all, but to a different extent, include land cover change scenarios when predicting future climates. Feddema et al (2005) analysed how important it is to include these for the outcome of the modelling.

The study shows that the way human will choose to alter the land cover in the future will have important effects on the real impact of climate change on the Earth. While on a global scale, land cover changes are expected to even out in their effects on global mean temperature and the hydrological cycle. The biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land cover change will, however, have modulating effects on the regional scale response to climate change. This supports my analysis of the effect of land cover change on climate in my previous posts. 

The characteristics of expected future land cover change is shown in the mapping of the IPCC SRES land-cover projections (Figure). We can see that significant changes are expected to occur in South America in all scenarios by 2050, mostly focused on Western Amazonia, South-Eastern Brazil and the southern tip of the continent. The most common change is the conversion to cool/warm grass land for agricultural purposes and livestock farming. The expected drying of the continent is reflected in the spreading of savannah biomes. What I find interesting is that in the B1 emission scenario, little change is expected in the central Amazon by 2050 and 2100 (see the boxed region on South America) - this may suggest that the rainforest conservation strategies implemented (both national and international along the lines of REDD) are expected to be effective and/or that the rainforest is able to withstand the adverse effects of global climate change.

Figure, (Source)